The Chief Public Health Officer of Canada, Dr. Theresa Tam, has indicated that there is cautious optimism that the COVID-19 epidemic is slowing down. From Dr. Tam’s pan-Canadian view of the progression of the epidemic, Canada is on the right track.

Below is a chart describing the progression of the COVID-19 crisis across Canada. 

The blue and red lines show the total number of confirmed cases as well as the daily increase in cases respectively and are plotted on a logarithmic scale (right). The green lines show the rate of growth in the number of cases with the thin green line shows the ratio of growth as a function of new cases that day vs. the number of cases the day before; a number less than 1.0 means that the number of new confirmed cases that day was less than the day before. The thick green line shows a weighted average of the daily growth ratio in order to better derive the trend.

Since the 5th of April, the trend across the whole of Canada has been one of a stabilized number of new cases being confirmed each day; an average of 1,259 cases a day. This is consistent with what the growth ratio demonstrates as it approaches the all important 1 line representing one new case confirmed based on the previous day. This, however, does not mean that the country can return to normal.