Canada continues to steadily move toward flattening the curve, but it has not yet reached that point. Ontario and Quebec continue to contribute about three quarters of newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 per day, and over the last week British Columbia has seen a slight reversal of the gains it has made over the three weeks prior.
Although there are many positive signs, including data showing that five provinces may be able to begin reducing physical distancing measures when a fast and reliable testing method available, Canada has yet to reach the all important point of inflection when we begin to see the curve actually start to flatten.
Continue reading The State of COVID-19 in Canada (2020-04-23)
The Chief Public Health Officer of Canada, Dr. Theresa Tam, has indicated that there is cautious optimism that the COVID-19 epidemic is slowing down. From Dr. Tam’s pan-Canadian view of the progression of the epidemic, Canada is on the right track.
Below is a chart describing the progression of the COVID-19 crisis across Canada.
The blue and red lines show the total number of confirmed cases as well as the daily increase in cases respectively and are plotted on a logarithmic scale (right). The green lines show the rate of growth in the number of cases with the thin green line shows the ratio of growth as a function of new cases that day vs. the number of cases the day before; a number less than 1.0 means that the number of new confirmed cases that day was less than the day before. The thick green line shows a weighted average of the daily growth ratio in order to better derive the trend.
Since the 5th of April, the trend across the whole of Canada has been one of a stabilized number of new cases being confirmed each day; an average of 1,259 cases a day. This is consistent with what the growth ratio demonstrates as it approaches the all important 1 line representing one new case confirmed based on the previous day. This, however, does not mean that the country can return to normal.
Continue reading The State of COVID-19 in Canada (2020-04-16)